Senior Likud figures are increasingly concerned that a new political alliance involving retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter and activist Yoseph Haddad could draw enough support from the right to leave votes below Israel's electoral threshold.

Winter is preparing to announce a new party next week, while negotiations with Haddad have reportedly advanced towards a joint electoral list. The possibility is creating pressure inside Likud over whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should seek to keep Haddad within the party's ranks rather than allow him to join Winter.

Israeli reports have previously described Winter as preparing an independent political framework. Recent coverage has also identified Haddad as one of the figures considering a political run, with both men increasingly linked to efforts to build a new right-wing force outside the established parties.

The concern in Likud is not necessarily that Winter alone would win enough support to enter the Knesset. A February poll by the Midgam institute put a hypothetical Winter party at 2%, below the 3.25% electoral threshold, while a separate scenario involving Haddad gave his prospective party four seats.

A May Midgam poll went further, giving a party led by Haddad five seats and showing that his support could come partly from Likud, Jewish Power and other right-leaning or centrist parties. The poll also found that a standalone Winter party remained below the threshold.

That distinction is central to the current calculations. Likud figures are reportedly less concerned about Haddad's potential contribution to the party than about the possibility that his personal support could make a Winter-led list viable enough to stay in the race until election day.

Under that scenario, the new list could become harder to persuade to withdraw or merge with Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism, potentially leaving several competing parties drawing from the same right-wing electorate.

The negotiations between Winter and Haddad are reported to be focused on a full political partnership rather than a temporary technical arrangement before the election. Haddad is seeking the second position on the list and is also seeking places for three additional candidates associated with him among its top 10, according to the account provided for this report.

Haddad has also been associated with a request to register a party called “Israel of Courage”, although his political options have not been presented as final. Earlier reports said he was considering several possible routes, including an independent run, joining another political framework or staying outside electoral politics.

The potential alliance is unfolding as several new political lists compete for voters on the Israeli right and centre. Yuli Edelstein, former Likud figures and other prospective candidates have also been examining new electoral frameworks, adding to concerns about fragmented support.

The electoral threshold is currently 3.25%. In the 2021 election, Likud won 30 seats, while the Religious Zionist Party won six after passing the threshold with 5.1% of the vote.

Netanyahu has previously used reserved places on the Likud list as part of efforts to consolidate right-wing parties. In the 2021 election, Ofir Sofer was placed 28th on the Likud list as a representative of the dormant “One Future” party. Official election records list Sofer in that position, while parliamentary records show that he later split from Likud and joined the Religious Zionist faction.

That precedent is now relevant to the debate over Likud's reserved places. The calculations are not simply about who joins Netanyahu's list, but whether such placements can prevent competing right-wing lists from falling below the threshold and thereby wasting votes.

For Likud, the immediate question is whether bringing figures such as Haddad into the party could reduce the incentive for them to build an independent list with Winter. The answer could affect how fragmented the right is when the next Knesset election is held.