Israel and the U.S.-Iran Agreement Covering Lebanon: Possible Scenarios

Tel Aviv — Despite publicly rejecting the concept of “unified fronts” and troop withdrawal from Lebanon, Israel may face new realities if the anticipated U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding includes Lebanon. Israeli media reported that the draft ceasefire agreement refers to “ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.”

Israeli officials argue this could be interpreted as unifying the fronts, but insist the deal will not restrict the Israeli military. Defense Minister Yisrael Katz stated Israel will not withdraw from security zones in Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza. A senior security official added that the army will continue dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

From Israel’s perspective, withdrawal from Lebanese positions is not on the table, as no direct agreement exists with Beirut. Analysts suggest Hezbollah may harden its stance if encouraged by the U.S.-Iran deal, while Iran could prefer Hezbollah’s redeployment north of the Litani River to regroup. Israeli officials say any eventual withdrawal would only occur if the Lebanese army assumes control and dismantles Hezbollah’s infrastructure, and even then, only gradually.

Israel continues to emphasize its deterrence formula of “southern Beirut for northern Israel” and insists on freedom of military action in Lebanon. Officials fear Washington may pressure Tel Aviv to exercise restraint to protect the U.S.-Iran accord, potentially straining relations. An American official described the deal as a “regional peace agreement” involving Lebanon, Iran, Gulf states, and Israel, while stressing allies retain the right to self-defense if Iran fails to comply.

Israeli media reported that political leaders instructed the army to scale down operations in southern Lebanon to avoid jeopardizing the agreement. Sources said strikes continue but remain limited and focused, with Israeli activity in Beirut still constrained.