Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is contesting the seat, aiming to return to Parliament in what is seen as a prelude to his plan to challenge Labour leader and Prime Minister Keir Starmer. British media describe it as “the most important by-election” in the country’s political history.

The vote in Micklefield, near Manchester, is more than a routine contest. Victory would give Burnham the legal pathway to run for Labour leadership and potentially the premiership. For Starmer, however, Burnham’s defeat would buy him more time to consolidate his position. The political future of Britain’s leadership thus hinges on the votes of roughly 76,000 constituents.

Polling stations will open at 7 a.m. (06:00 GMT) and close at 10 p.m., with counting to follow and results expected early Friday. The by-election was triggered by MP Josh Simmons stepping down to allow Burnham to run. Labour rules require leadership candidates to be sitting MPs, prompting Burnham—who served from 2001 to 2017—to seek a return.
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At 56, Burnham is a seasoned politician popular among Labour’s moderate left. He has been a vocal critic of Starmer’s centrist approach since ousting the Conservatives in July 2024. Labour’s poor performance last month was compounded by the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson—linked to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein—as ambassador to Washington.

The contest is expected to be fierce against Reform UK’s far-right candidate Robert Kenyon. While Micklefield is traditionally Labour territory, Simmons won by just over 5,300 votes in 2024. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, swept local council seats last month. Burnham’s popularity may give him an edge, especially as Kenyon faces backlash over offensive social media posts. Another factor is the ultra-right “Restore Britain” party, backed by Elon Musk, which polls at 8%—greater than the margin between Burnham (45%) and Kenyon (40%).

If victorious, Burnham may quickly announce a leadership bid, though some expect him to wait until Labour’s annual conference in September. He would need support from 81 of Labour’s 402 MPs to enter the race, with members deciding the outcome. Other potential contenders include former Health Secretary Wes Streeting and ex-Defense Secretary John Healey, who resigned last week. A YouGov poll showed Burnham leading Starmer, though Starmer warned Monday that a leadership challenge would plunge Britain into “chaos.” Burnham’s allies, meanwhile, hope Starmer’s ministers will persuade him to resign or set a departure timetable.