According to diplomats, the paper outlines three scenarios:

  • Import licensing system requiring special approval for goods.

  • High tariffs imposed on settlement products.

  • Outright ban on imports from settlements.

    • The EU has already sanctioned four entities and three individuals in May for serious human rights violations against Palestinians. However, reaching consensus on stronger measures remains difficult. Some diplomats argue that a ban would require unanimity among all 27 member states, making it unlikely, while others believe a qualified majority could suffice.

    Belgium’s foreign minister Maxime Prévot accused the EU of bias toward Israel, calling for sanctions on both the Israeli government and settlers due to escalating violence. He emphasized that Europe must act decisively to maintain credibility on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas acknowledged the severity of settler violence in the West Bank.

    The debate reflects deep divisions within the EU. Countries like Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands push for restrictions, while Germany signals opposition to tariffs. The International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion in July 2024 declared Israel’s occupation and settlement building illegal, urging states to prevent trade and investment that sustain them.

    Settlement expansion has accelerated dramatically: from an average of 8 outposts annually between 2012–2022, to 32 in 2023, 62 in 2024, and 86 in 2025. Israel recently approved plans for 13 new settlements in central West Bank, raising fears of further fragmentation of Palestinian territory and undermining the Oslo Accords.