The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for Russian oil production, citing the growing impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on the country's energy infrastructure.

In its latest monthly report, the Paris-based agency said continued strikes on Russian refineries, storage facilities, and transport infrastructure are expected to weaken oil output over the next two years. As a result, the IEA reduced its production forecast for Russia by 85,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 150,000 barrels per day in 2027.

The agency now expects Russia to produce an average of 8.9 million barrels per day this year and 8.8 million barrels per day in 2027, down from 9.2 million barrels per day in 2025.

Despite the downward outlook, Russian crude production increased by 120,000 barrels per day in June to 8.86 million barrels per day, although it remained below the production target set by the OPEC+ alliance.

The report also noted that attacks on Russian refineries have redirected more crude oil toward exports. Russia's crude exports rose to 5.8 million barrels per day in June, while exports of refined petroleum products fell to 1.91 million barrels per day.

Earlier this week, Moscow imposed a temporary ban on diesel exports and tightened restrictions on gasoline and jet fuel exports to address domestic fuel shortages.