Palestinian-American mediator Bishara Bahbah has outlined what he believes could become a workable formula for ending the Gaza war, arguing that progress depends on direct negotiations with Washington, security guarantees for Hamas and greater pressure on Israel to fulfil its ceasefire obligations.

Bahbah, who heads Arab Americans for Peace, said several overlapping issues continue to obstruct a comprehensive settlement. These include the rise of Khalil al-Hayya within Hamas, disagreements over the movement’s weapons, Washington’s approach to enforcing the ceasefire and the influence of Israel’s upcoming elections.

Bahbah recalled meeting al-Hayya in Doha about a year ago during negotiations over a proposed 60-day ceasefire that was intended to lead to further talks on permanently ending the war.

He said al-Hayya has effectively managed Hamas since the killing of Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. Although he does not expect the movement’s policies to change dramatically under al-Hayya’s leadership, Bahbah described him as pragmatic and capable of taking calculated political steps.

He pointed to Hamas’s previous decision to release an Israeli-American soldier as a gesture of goodwill, saying the move helped create conditions for the eventual ceasefire.

Bahbah argued that the agreement has since been undermined by daily Israeli violations. He said Israeli attacks have continued since October 9, frequently killing between five and 10 Palestinians each day while being treated as routine.

He also criticised what he described as a double standard in Washington’s enforcement of the agreement. According to Bahbah, American officials expect Hamas to implement every obligation, while partial Israeli compliance is often treated as a significant achievement.

“This equation is not normal,” Bahbah said, arguing that the imbalance reflects Washington’s continued political preference for Israel.

Bahbah said al-Hayya received significant support from Hamas’s military wing during the movement’s internal leadership process and is considered closer to Iran than his rival Khaled Meshaal.

However, he said uncertainty remains over whether al-Hayya will stay in the position long-term. Hamas’s internal elections have reportedly been postponed several times because its factions could not reach sufficient agreement over a permanent leader.

The most difficult issue remains the future of Hamas’s weapons.

Israel is demanding that the movement surrender its arsenal while continuing military operations and targeted killings against its members. Bahbah questioned what protection Hamas fighters and political leaders would have if the movement handed over its weapons without binding guarantees.

He proposed replacing demands for complete disarmament with an arrangement under which weapons would either be transferred to an agreed Palestinian party or placed in monitored storage.

Such an agreement, he argued, would require firm guarantees that Hamas members and leaders inside and outside Gaza would not be pursued, arrested or assassinated.

Without those protections, Bahbah said, Hamas would have little incentive to surrender or store its weapons while Israeli attacks continue.

Israel’s domestic political situation presents another major obstacle. Bahbah said Israeli leaders are unlikely to make decisive concessions before the country’s elections.

He outlined a scenario in which the opposition fails to secure the 61 parliamentary seats needed to form a government but continues refusing to rely on Arab members of the Knesset. That could lead to another election and leave Benjamin Netanyahu in charge of a caretaker government for an additional six months.

Bahbah warned that Gaza’s future must not remain dependent entirely on Israeli electoral calculations.

He said he had advised Hamas to negotiate directly with the United States over weapons and other unresolved issues, pointing to American involvement in negotiations concerning Lebanon and Syria.

Bahbah argued that direct engagement with Washington could help Hamas secure guarantees while giving the United States greater influence over Israel’s actions.

If Hamas and the Trump administration reach an understanding on weapons and security arrangements, Bahbah believes Washington could pressure Israel to end its attacks and move toward fully implementing the ceasefire.

“The decision is certainly in Washington,” he concluded. “The smart approach is to bring Washington to your side rather than confront it.”